Sports
Morgan State, Jackson State Lead First Toyota Championship Projection
The new model measures each team’s path to the Celebration Bowl as the MEAC and SWAC championship races enter a critical stretch.
ATLANTA — Morgan State and Jackson State hold the strongest positions in their respective conferences in the inaugural Toyota Championship Projection, released October 21.
The model gives Morgan State a 63.4% chance of securing the MEAC’s berth in the Celebration Bowl. Jackson State leads the SWAC championship projection at 40.3%, with Alabama A&M close behind at 29.9%.
Unlike a traditional power ranking, the projection evaluates both a team’s performance and its remaining route to a championship. It combines team strength, quality of competition, scoring efficiency, conference standings, remaining opponents, game location and selected computer rankings.
The model then simulates the rest of the conference season, applying standings and applicable tiebreak procedures to determine how often each team advances.
John T. Grant, the bowl’s executive director, said the tool is intended to give fans and media more insight into the championship races while encouraging informed discussion.
“It does not replace what happens on the field, and it is not meant to tell us who will win,” Grant said. “It is a tool to help us better understand the road to Atlanta and create more informed conversation around the Celebration Bowl.”
Morgan State Opens as the MEAC Favorite
With MEAC play beginning this week, all six programs enter the conference schedule with an opportunity to establish themselves. Morgan State starts with the strongest projection, holding nearly a two-in-three chance of earning the league’s Celebration Bowl berth.
South Carolina State is the closest challenger at 19.7%, followed by Delaware State at 7.3%.
| Rank | Team | MEAC Championship Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morgan State | 63.4% |
| 2 | South Carolina State | 19.7% |
| 3 | Delaware State | 7.3% |
| T-4 | Howard | 4.5% |
| T-4 | Norfolk State | 4.5% |
| 6 | North Carolina Central | 0.7% |
The MEAC’s five-game conference schedule leaves little room for mistakes. Early head-to-head results could quickly change the percentages, particularly when teams near the top of the projection meet.
Morgan State hosts Howard this week, while South Carolina State welcomes Norfolk State and North Carolina Central visits Delaware State.
Jackson State and Alabama A&M Set the Pace in the SWAC East
Jackson State leads the East Division projection at 49.5%, but Alabama A&M remains within striking distance at 36.6%.
Together, the two programs account for most of the projected division titles. Bethune-Cookman sits third at 9.3% and has an immediate opportunity to improve its position against Jackson State.
| Rank | Team | SWAC East Division Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson State | 49.5% |
| 2 | Alabama A&M | 36.6% |
| 3 | Bethune-Cookman | 9.3% |
| 4 | Alabama State | 4.2% |
| 5 | Mississippi Valley State | 0.4% |
| — | Florida A&M | 0.0% — Ineligible |
The release identifies Florida A&M as ineligible for postseason advancement. The Rattlers remain included in the simulations because their results can still affect conference records and tiebreak scenarios.
Grambling State Leads a Crowded SWAC West
The West Division presents a more evenly distributed race, with five teams holding at least a 10% chance of finishing on top.
Grambling State leads at 41.6%, followed by Prairie View A&M at 26.0%. Southern, Alcorn State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff remain closely grouped behind them.
| Rank | Team | SWAC West Division Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grambling State | 41.6% |
| 2 | Prairie View A&M | 26.0% |
| 3 | Southern | 12.3% |
| 4 | Alcorn State | 10.1% |
| 5 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 10.0% |
| 6 | Texas Southern | 0.03% |
With little separation among the teams chasing the top two, a single result could significantly change the division’s outlook.
Southern visits Texas Southern this week, while Arkansas-Pine Bluff travels to Florida A&M. Both games carry weight for West Division contenders trying to improve their position.
East Division Teams Lead the Overall SWAC Outlook
Reaching the SWAC Championship Game is only part of the path to Atlanta. A division winner must also capture the conference title to secure its Celebration Bowl appearance.
Jackson State and Alabama A&M combine for 70.2% of the model’s projected SWAC championships. Grambling State has the strongest overall championship projection among West Division teams at 10.2%.
| Rank | Team | SWAC Championship Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson State | 40.3% |
| 2 | Alabama A&M | 29.9% |
| 3 | Grambling State | 10.2% |
| 4 | Bethune-Cookman | 6.0% |
| 5 | Prairie View A&M | 5.2% |
| 6 | Alabama State | 2.7% |
| 7 | Southern | 2.1% |
| 8 | Alcorn State | 1.8% |
| 9 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 1.7% |
| 10 | Mississippi Valley State | 0.12% |
| 11 | Texas Southern | Less than 0.01% |
| — | Florida A&M | 0.0% — Ineligible |
Six Games Could Reshape the Projections
Howard’s visit to Morgan State gives the Bears their first opportunity to back up their position as the MEAC favorite. A Bison victory would immediately improve Howard’s outlook and tighten the conference race.
South Carolina State will try to protect its position against Norfolk State. For the Spartans, a road win would provide an important head-to-head advantage over the model’s second-ranked MEAC contender.
Delaware State’s matchup with North Carolina Central offers both teams an opportunity to establish early conference momentum. The Eagles enter with the league’s lowest projection, but an opening victory would improve their path.
In the SWAC, Jackson State’s trip to Bethune-Cookman carries the greatest potential impact this week, according to the release. A Tigers victory would strengthen their position atop the East, while a Wildcats win would bring Bethune-Cookman more firmly into contention.
Southern needs a victory at Texas Southern to keep pace in the crowded West. Arkansas-Pine Bluff faces a similar opportunity at Florida A&M, where a win would help the Golden Lions remain alongside the division’s other challengers.
A Weekly Look at the Road to Atlanta
The Toyota Championship Projection will update as new results become available. Wins, losses, changes in team performance and evolving tiebreak situations will all influence the percentages.
For now, Morgan State holds the clearest projected path in the MEAC, while Jackson State leads a competitive SWAC field. The coming weeks will determine whether those favorites strengthen their positions or give way to new contenders.
**Tags