HBCU ORIGINAL
South Carolina State, Alabama A&M Lead Updated Celebration Bowl Projections
South Carolina State, Alabama A&M Lead Updated Celebration Bowl Projections
South Carolina State and Alabama A&M have the strongest projected paths to Atlanta, while key victories by Howard and Bethune-Cookman have reshaped the chase for a Celebration Bowl berth.
The latest Toyota Championship Projection, released Oct. 28 and incorporating games through Oct. 24, gives South Carolina State a 40.63% chance of representing the MEAC in the Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota. Alabama A&M leads the SWAC with a 49.10% chance of winning its conference championship and advancing to Atlanta.
The projections reflect 10,000 simulated finishes to the season, using team strength, FCS scoring efficiency, conference standings, remaining schedules, game locations and applicable tiebreakers.
“Last weekend demonstrated why we introduced this projection,” said John T. Grant, executive director of the Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota.
Howard’s overtime victory against Morgan State and Bethune-Cookman’s narrow win over Jackson State were among the results that changed the outlook.
South Carolina State Takes the Lead in the MEAC
South Carolina State’s 22-7 victory over Norfolk State helped put the Bulldogs atop the MEAC projections. Howard moved into second after defeating Morgan State 26-20 in overtime, leaving the Bears close behind in third.
Together, those three programs account for nearly 94% of the model’s projected MEAC representatives.
| Team | Chance to Reach Celebration Bowl | South Carolina State | 40.63% | Howard | 27.94% | Morgan State | 25.40% | North Carolina Central | 4.10% | Delaware State | 1.16% | Norfolk State | 0.77% |
|---|
The next round of conference games could shift those numbers again. South Carolina State visits Morgan State on Thursday, Oct. 29, giving the Bulldogs an opportunity to secure a valuable head-to-head victory against a leading contender.
Howard travels to North Carolina Central on Saturday. NCCU enters after defeating Delaware State 31-12, and both teams will be looking to build on wins in their MEAC openers.
Alabama A&M Leads as Bethune-Cookman Gains Ground
Alabama A&M holds a 60.42% chance of winning the SWAC East and reaching the conference championship game. Its 49.10% chance of completing the journey to the Celebration Bowl is the highest of any SWAC program.
Bethune-Cookman made a significant move with its 24-21 victory over Jackson State. The Wildcats now have a 27.16% chance of winning the East and a 17.86% chance of reaching Atlanta.
Jackson State remains in contention, but its 3-2 conference record leaves the Tigers needing help. The model gives Jackson State a 10.53% chance of winning the division and an 8.07% chance of winning the SWAC championship.
Alabama A&M’s next test comes Saturday against Alabama State in the Magic City Classic. A Bulldogs victory would strengthen their position, while a Hornets win would create an opening for other East contenders.
Grambling Holds a Narrow Edge in the West
The SWAC West remains tightly contested, with Grambling State leading the division projections at 36.69%. Prairie View A&M follows at 32.90% after strengthening its profile with a 30-19 nonconference road victory over East Texas A&M.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s 31-28 win over Florida A&M helped keep the Golden Lions in the race. UAPB has a 14.92% chance of winning the West, followed by Alcorn State at 12.61%.
Southern sits at 2.71%, while Texas Southern has a 0.17% chance despite its 24-21 victory over the Jaguars.
The overall SWAC projections account for both winning a division and winning the conference championship game:
| Team | Chance to Reach Celebration Bowl | Alabama A&M | 49.10% | Bethune-Cookman | 17.86% | Grambling State | 9.57% | Prairie View A&M | 8.58% | Jackson State | 8.07% | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 2.95% | Alcorn State | 2.35% | Alabama State | 1.03% | Southern | 0.42% | Mississippi Valley State | 0.04% | Texas Southern | 0.03% |
|---|
Florida A&M is listed as ineligible in the projection.
Games to Watch
Six matchups carry particular importance for the conference races this week. All times are Eastern.
| Matchup | Date | Time | Network | South Carolina State at Morgan State | Oct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESPNU | Howard at North Carolina Central | Oct. | |
| ESPN+ | Bethune-Cookman at Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Oct. | |
| SWAC TV | Alcorn State at Mississippi Valley State | Oct. | |
| SWAC TV | Alabama State vs. Alabama A&M | Oct. | |
| ESPN+ | Grambling State at Texas Southern | Oct. | |
| SWAC TV |
Bethune-Cookman’s trip to Arkansas-Pine Bluff will affect both SWAC divisions, while Grambling State and Alcorn State face road tests as they pursue the West title.
The projections measure possible outcomes based on current information. They do not guarantee results or fully account for injuries, turnovers, weather and other factors that can change a game.
The 2026 Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota is scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 12, at noon ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. ABC will televise the matchup between the MEAC and SWAC champions.
Tags: HBCU football, Celebration Bowl, Toyota Championship Projection, MEAC football, SWAC football, South Carolina State, Alabama A&M, Howard University, Bethune-Cookman, Morgan State, Jackson State, Grambling State, Prairie View A&M, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, North Carolina Central, Magic City Classic, college football